Is That Legal?

It's far too cynical to expect something like a new terrorist threat, but some kind of coup in Iraq is not out of the question. A nice FBI roundup of dangerous "enemy combatants" would help.

Why are you assuming more is going on than Rove just thinking he has some insight into the numbers and voting patterns that others don't see? I'm not sure there is some rabbit to be pulled out of a hat here. It might just be that he thinks the situation isn't as grim for the GOP as the others do.

They own the voting machines.

It's not who casts the votes, it's who counts them.

Republican landslide guarenteed.

It will be hard to ignore the possibility that election fraud occurred if the GOP does not suffer serious losses this time around.

Bear in mind, Rove has been very confident in every election cycle, to the point that he even had his people start contesting California in 2000. Also, if you look historically at how polls have shaken out, especially in the last 15 years or so, they generally overstate somewhat the preference for Democrats; it's something in the modelling techniques that does it, which I don't pretend to understand, but which comes up fairly consistently. And Andy, this effect happens even where there are paper ballots.

All this means is that there can be substantial Republican losses, particularly in terms of absolute numbers of votes, but because of districting and federal structure the GOP might still hold onto at least one house and possibly, narrowly, both. The economy is pretty good right now, so the "throw the bums out" syndrome might not be intense enough to throw the election decisively to the Democratic column.

The economy is pretty good right now? I take it that your income exceeds $350,000.00 a year if you are making that statement. The only place "the economy is pretty good right now" is in the highest income brackets. Record debt does not a good economy make. As for the vote I COMPLETELY agree with the statement "It's not who casts the votes, it's who counts them". As for an October Surprise, well let's just say that nobody knows how to generate fear better than the Boogey Man and I think we all know who wears that hat these days. And if the election doesn't come out legit? Thanks to The Military Commisions Act any dissenters can simply be labled as Unlawful Enemy Combatants and made to vanish like mold underneath a layer of scubby bubbles.

I doubt that Rove has a surprise, or that he thinks he has some insight into the numbers and voting patterns that others don't see. Rather, he is engaging in false optimism in order to motivate discouraged Republicans to vote. He hopes to create a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Everyone with a D next to their name will be arrested for some reason on Election Day.

1.) Plenty more of the kind of shit the GOP has thrown at Harold Ford and James Webb, all concentrated in the final days before the election and all designed to appeal to the lizard brain -- irrefutable, because not intended to be factual. James Webb wants to have sex with babies!

2.) U.S. Navy conducting exercises in the Strait of Hormuz on Oct. 31, danger close to Iran. Possibility of manipulable Gulf of Tonkin (non)event. I thought I was being ridiculous to think this, until I sat down to cable news today and the anchor was bleating about a possible terrorist attack on U.S. naval forces in the Persian Gulf. They're attacking us! (Or, they're about to attack us!) Rally around the commander in chief!

3.) Verdict in Saddam Hussein's trial on Nov. 5 -- see, we brought a dictator to justice! Progress in Iraq! It's working!