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September 4, 2005
The Department of Homeland Security Was Preparing for "Two Catastrophes" in New Orleans
On Face the Nation, he said this:
Secretary MICHAEL CHERTOFF (Department of Homeland Security): Well, this was not
just one catastrophe. It was actually two catastrophes. There was a hurricane of force 4 which
slammed into Louisiana, slammed into Mississippi, caused enormous destruction. The
hurricane started to depart the area on Monday, and then Tuesday morning the levee broke
and the water started to flood into New Orleans. So the initial operation, to rescue people based
on the hurricane, was all of a sudden complicated by the fact that we now had an ongoing flood
situation which prevented resupply operations.SCHIEFFER: Well, doesn't this have--mean that you're going to--at the very least going to
have to start over on planning for things of this kind? I mean, the president said the results are
unacceptable. I think a lot of people around the country would use even stronger language.Sec. CHERTOFF: I think that the lesson of this hurricane, which we will clearly look at as we
go over an after-action evaluation, is going to be very valuable in moving forward. I mean, this
was an ultra-catastrophe, but we have to be prepared even for ultra-catastrophes, even things
that happen once in a lifetime and once in a generation. So, yes, we will be studying that.
On Meet the Press, Chertoff put it this way:
"Well, I think if you look at what actually happened, I remember on Tuesday morning picking up newspapers and I saw headlines, 'New Orleans Dodged The Bullet,' because if you recall the storm moved to the east and then continued on and appeared to pass with considerable damage but nothing worse. It was on Tuesday that the levee--may have been overnight Monday to Tuesday--that the levee started to break. And it was midday Tuesday that I became aware of the fact that there was no possibility of plugging the gap and that essentially the lake was going to start to drain into the city. I think that second catastrophe really caught everybody by surprise. In fact, I think that's one of the reasons people didn't continue to leave after the hurricane had passed initially. So this was clearly an unprecedented catastrophe."
"What caught people by surprise in this instance," Chertoff said, "was the fact that there was a second wave--the failure of the levees and the resulting flooding.
"Caught by surprise." An unforeseeable "second wave." "Something to study."
It turns out, though, that the Department of Homeland Security has extensively studied how to cope with a "second wave" following a major hurricane in New Orleans.
Guess what the second wave was.
You guessed it. Not a breached levee, but terrorism.
Read this article from the New Orleans Times Picayune of October 19, 2003:
Terror Drill to Include Variety of GroupsOrganizations from the Navy to BellSouth on Wednesday will hold the first Purple Crescent exercise, designed to test the region s'ability to protect public services and utilities, and prepare for their reaction to terrorist attacks.
Sponsored by the Gulf Coast Regional Partnership for Infrastructure Security, a nonprofit group, the "tabletop" exercise is based on fictitious attacks and the subsequent disruption of various public services such as electrical power and telecommunications.
Purple Crescent will be held in the Space and Naval Warfare Systems Information Technology Center at the Lakefront and is closed to the public. Participants include the Coast Guard, Harbor Police, U.S. Secret Service, and local, state and federal agencies and private companies.
Here is the scenario that Purple Crescent modeled, according to an article that appeared in the New York Times Magazine on February 8, 2004:
Paula Scalingi, the former director of the Department of Energy's Office of Critical Infrastructure Protection, now works as a consultant running disaster-preparedness exercises. Last year she helped organize ''Purple Crescent'' in New Orleans, an exercise that modeled a terrorist strike against the city's annual Jazz and Heritage Festival. The simulation includes a physical attack but also uses a worm unleashed by the terrorists designed to cripple communications and sow confusion nationwide. The physical attack winds up flooding New Orleans; the cyberattack makes hospital care chaotic. ''They have trouble communicating, they can't get staff in, it's hard for them to order supplies,'' she says.
That was Purple Crescent.
In October 2004, disaster planners gathered in New Orleans again for Purple Crescent II. Here's a description:
"Purple Crescent II Exercise is an exercise to test and evaluate the various agencies in Southeastern Louisiana and their ability to handle a major natural disaster such as a hurricane during a high terrorist threat environment. What happens when terrorist or would be hackers attempt to disrupt communications infrastructure concurrent with a natural disaster taking place in or around the City of New Orleans, Louisiana? The effects of a large natural disaster are already devastating as we are seeing along the Gulf Coast after Hurricane Ivan made landfall. How much worse could it be if domestic or international terrorists attempted to impede preparations before the storm, or the recovery after the storm, by utilizing cyber-terrorism? All agencies, including government, law enforcement, EMS, public health, commercial banking, petro-chemical, and private enterprises are welcome to participate in this DHS monitored and supported exercise."
Note that list thing: "this DHS monitored and supported exercise." Yes, that's right. Purple Crescent and Purple Crescent II were co-sponsored by the federal Department of Homeland Security. DHS brags about Purple Crescent II here, for example:
"[DHS] co-sponsored Blue Cascades II and Purple Crescent II, two regional tabletop cyber exercises in Seattle, WA and New Orleans, LA. Each exercise brought together more than 200 government and private sector officials to examine cyber security readiness and response procedures, highlight the importance of cyber security in critical infrastructure protection, and discuss solutions for integrating physical security and cyber security. Region-specific coordination and communication plans between first responders, the federal government, and critical infrastructure owners/operators were exercised."
So the idea that Mike Chertoff and DHS were "caught by surprise" when a second catastrophic event followed a catastrophic hurricance and complicated hurricane recovery is just plain false.
Mike Chertof and DHS were preparing for just such a scenario.
It's just that they were thinking of a hurricane followed by a terrorist attack, rather than a hurricane followed by a flood.
In the coming days, reporters should be asking Mike Chertoff and the President some tough questions about "Purple Crescent," "Purple Crescent II," and why they thought a terrorist attack was a likelier follow-up to a New Orleans hurricane than a breached levee.
UPDATE: Michael Benson puts a finer point on it.
Posted by Eric at September 4, 2005 6:01 PM
Comments
". . . why they thought a terrorist attack was a likelier follow-up to a New Orleans hurricane than a breached levee."
Eric, should this sentence end with something like, "especially given the numerous studies, including the 5-part Times-Picayune piece, the National Geographic story, to name two, that described a breached levee followed by deadly flooding as the most likely post-hurricance disaster scenario for New Orleans."
Moreover, why would DHS and the Administration expect terrorism to be a logical post-script to a a deadly hurricane hitting the Delta? Are they saying there's already a terrorist cell in New Orleans but they didn't tell anyone (or was)? Or was their theory that, with New Orleans flooded, a terrorist cell would penetrate the city . . . wearing waiters . . . and then cut off communications by, hmmmm, doing nothing because all communication was already cut-off?
Or, given the premise of Purple Cresent II ("The physical attack winds up flooding New Orleans"), was this group of adminstration experts thinking that -- with the city flooded, like it is now -- it would nonetheless continue to function robustly, making a computer/communications attack a serious threat?
I'll be the first to say, I'm not nearly as smart as Chertoff (Harvard/Harvard). Or Rumsfeld (Princeton). Or Condi (Stanford Prof).
But under any of the foregoing scenarios I posit, I feel secure in saying, these people are not in touch with the same reality I live in . . . as evidenced by New Orleans today.
Posted by: marietta at September 4, 2005 8:46 PM
The fact is, the federal government KNEW that there was a serious threat to the levee system from hurricanes:
"Lt. Gen. Carl Strock, the Corps commander, conceded Friday that the government had known the New Orleans levees could never withstand a hurricane higher than a Category 3. Corps officials shuddered, he said, when they realized that Katrina was barreling down on the Gulf Coast with the vastly greater destructive force of a Category 5 — the strongest type of hurricane.
Washington, he said, had rolled the dice."
Another source states that it was well-known that the levee walls in some places were two feet shorter (and therefore thinner) than would be required in a category three hurricane!
I am holding this administration responsible for the deaths of everyone who would be alive today BUT FOR reasonable and prudent precautions not taken, reasonable and prudent warnings not given, and reasonable, prudent, and timely humanitarian aid not provided.
By the causation language you can bet I believe these reckless inactions constitute criminal and prosecutable offenses.
Posted by: David Marshall at September 4, 2005 9:08 PM
The terrorism part makes a great deal of sense to me.
On Wednesday, my wife was on her way to Norfolk, Va (key naval base is located there) to take my baby son to the dentist and ran into a major roadblock on the way. This was not a run-of-the-mill sobriety checkpoint (this was at noon on a weekday). She said the law enforcement officers asked many rather intrusive questions, probably because they saw the handicapped tag on the rearview mirror (my eldest son is disabled). She commented to me that in her view it looked more like a potential terrorism checkpoint.
Perhaps it was.
Posted by: Glen Bowman at September 4, 2005 10:25 PM
I posted a little thing pushing your basic logic a bit farther on my blog.
Posted by: Michael Benson at September 4, 2005 11:03 PM
"What happens when terrorist or would be hackers attempt to disrupt communications infrastructure concurrent with a natural disaster"
Didn't FEMA do just that, cut communications lines, as well as other disruptions, according to Mr. Broussard who appeared on Meet the Press today? Are they turning this into Purple Crescent III?
I hate feeling paranoid like this.
Posted by: aw at September 5, 2005 12:05 AM
Logically, this is completely impossible. Are we to believe there are terror cells in, for example, San Francisco, waiting for the next major earthquake to strike? It would be highly inefficient to wait for a national disaster to strike, rather than just striking without notice.
Posted by: james h at September 5, 2005 12:22 AM
I suppose Mr. Chertoff also reads the paper to find out if there are any terrorist attacks in the offing. How dare that bastard even suggest he was unaware? How dare they try to spin this into another groups lap? It is time to hold Bush and his lying cronies responsible. They are at fault for the response and no amount of lying or finger pointing will alter this. If there is a descent soul left in Washington, he or she should start impeachment proceedings against Bush and Cheney.
Posted by: kevin at September 5, 2005 1:36 AM
Dear Leader sat on his ass in a classroom reading a book about a goat while people hurled themselves out of tall buildings in New York City on 9-11. It took him four days to finally get his chickenshit ass to Manhattan where rich white men do business.
So why should this disaster be any different?
This is the same chickenshit who went AWOL in time of war in 1972. Do you think he somehow turned into a hero since then?
The entire nation knew this storm was headed to the Gulf Coast with Cat5 force on Sunday. It hit Sunday night and the levee failed on Monday morning. On Tuesday Dear Leader was strumming his guitar. And it wasn't till Wednesday afternoon that the decision was made to get federal help into NOLA to start evacuating people.
It took him another day to even do a fly-over where poor black people were suffering and dying.
The entire world sees with crystal clarity the incompetence of this Republican Administration.
Will the American Media?
Posted by: BS Detector at September 5, 2005 5:23 AM
This would explain the heighten level of police guarding the subways in NJ and NYC this week. I was wondering why I was seeing more police in the North after a Hurricane in the South and no real terrorist news in the press.
Posted by: soybomb at September 5, 2005 8:20 AM
I remember on Tuesday morning picking up newspapers and I saw headlines, "New Orleans Dodged The Bullet,"
The director of DHS is getting his information from the newspapers? We ARE in trouble.
Posted by: Johna at September 5, 2005 9:47 AM
As a Louisiana native and gulf coast resident, I have lived through many hurricanes. I lived in New Orleans for several years. EVERYONE THERE KNEW A BREAK IN THE LEVEES COULD OCCUR AT ANY TIME AND WOULD BE CATASTROPHIC. Most of my friends felt this way 'Okay, this could happen, but in the meantime, laisez les bon temps roulez!'
Liken it to living with the threat of an earthquake in CA.
That's why most people heeded the evacuations and got out. Most of the ones who stayed did NOT ask for help before the storm. What do you think the response might have been if droves of people showed up at the Superdome Saturday and said 'help us' - I think the local governments would have been forced into action then. Their pre-storm efforts were lackadaisical at best.
FEMA took 3-4 days last year to assist after Hurricane Ivan. I am not surprised that the flooding caused greater logistical difficulty for them - and remember that FEMA had to respond to residents in three other states affected by Katrina as well. As a gulf coast resident, I am stocked at the beginning of hurricane season with water, food and batteries. I know better than to rely on any government agency.
I think many people in New Orleans also had 'cry wolf' syndrome. I place blame for the loss of life equally on those who stayed and the government agencies that failed to protect and aid them - with the brunt of the blame to fall on Mayor Nagin and Governor Blanco's inept shoulders.
Posted by: Anna at September 10, 2005 11:56 AM
Have we examined the levee breaks with divers? Do we know for sure that terrorists didn't cause the levee breaks? I just don't see anything about the possibility of this. It seems like it would make so much sense and be easy to do. It is also something to consider before rebuilding/strengthening the cities and rebuilding the city there.
Posted by: Linda Nelson at September 18, 2005 5:01 PM
I have never heard so much BS as I have here. You are all freakin' nuts. FEMA, as a federal agency has to receive STATE AUTHORIZATION before they can enter a state. Blanco dragged her feet, both before and after the actual storm hit. Dear Leader asked her to issue the evacuation order and she delayed. Nagin was busy looking after himself when all this occured. Bill Clinton didn't send FEMA to help Hurricane Andrew victims until almost 30 days later. And to BSdetector, quit basing all your stupid misinformation on Micheal Moore movies. Learn to think for yourself.
Posted by: Robert at November 17, 2006 1:05 AM